College lacrosse betting odds and picks: Best bets for NCAA men’s lacrosse tournament opening round Sunday

No. 3 Johns Hopkins vs. Lehigh

Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

Johns Hopkins hosts Lehigh to start the Sunday slate and is a 4.5-point home favorite. The Blue Jays enter the tournament following an embarrassing 7-10 loss to Michigan in a game they led 6-1 at one point. Despite not carrying a ton of momentum into the opening round, I love this matchup for Hopkins.

Lehigh has been hot of late, but should have a tough time scoring against a Hopkins defense that ranks sixth in adjusted defensive efficiency, according to Lacrosse Reference. Their offense stalled a bit during Big Ten play, but is still extremely efficient — 14th in adjusted offensive efficiency. Meanwhile, the Mountain Hawks rank just 26th in adjusted defensive efficiency and are 44th in adjusted offensive efficiency — the worst mark of any of this year’s tournament teams.

Hopkins also has the benefit of offensive coordinator John Crawley being just two seasons removed from coaching the Lehigh offense as an assistant coach. Not only do the Blue Jays have the personnel to outmatch Lehigh, they may also have an informational advantage. Ultimately, I don’t expect Lehigh to be able to reach double digits against this defense. I also expect Hopkins to handle a defense that has only faced four other offenses that rank in the top 20 in adjusted offensive efficiency — and lost to all four (Cornell, Princeton, Army and Loyola.)

Bet Johns Hopkins to build a lead and win by five or more at -120 on BetMGM.

I’m also targeting a player prop in this game. Lehigh’s best player is attackman Scott Cole, but he’s been boom or bust depending on the matchup. He’s recorded three or more points in four of his past five games, but this is a good time to sell-high. On the season, he’s stayed under his current points prop of 2.5 in nine of 16 games and has particularly struggled against top-ranked defenses. Expect him to draw a ton of attention on Sunday and bet him to stay Under 2.5 points at +110 on DraftKings.

Picks: Johns Hopkins -4.5, Scott Cole Under 2.5 Points

No. 8 Georgetown vs. Penn State

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Georgetown hosts Penn State on Sunday afternoon in what will likely be the most competitive game of the Sunday slate. Penn State is a slight favorite in a game I could see going either way. Rather than take a side, I’m targeting the total of 23.

Both teams feature defenses that rank in the top 20 in adjusted defensive efficiency, with the Nittany Lions ranking fourth on Lacrosse Reference. Both offenses are very efficient, but play at some of the slowest paces in the nation. The Hoyas have the slowest offense in Division I lacrosse and Penn State sits not too far behind (fifth-slowest).

I expect a slow, methodical game with drawn out possessions and trust both netminders to make stops when shots are taken. We’ll likely only see one team reach double digits and could just as easily see both stay under 10 goals.

Bet this game to stay under 23 at -120 on DraftKings.

While I expect more calculated possessions, I do think Georgetown’s Graham Bundy Jr. will find ways to generate quality scoring chances. Bundy has a shots-on-goal percentage of 60% and is averaging just over four shots on goal per game. His points prop is set at 3.5 and while it’s juiced to -150 on DraftKings, he’s surpassed this mark in 11 of 15 games this season. Whether he’s scoring or getting stopped by Penn State goalie Jack Fracyon, I expect Bundy to go over 3.5 Shots on Goal.

Picks: Under 23, Graham Bundy Over 3.5 SOG

No. 1 Notre Dame vs. Albany

Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

The Fighting Irish are the favorites to win it all and face Albany, the winner of Wednesday’s play-in game. I tend to avoid high spreads with favorites, but I think there is still value in betting Notre Dame — even as a 9.5-point favorite.

Notre Dame has been dominant this season and is closer to the 2022 Maryland team that went undefeated and won the national championship than many might realize. According to Lacrosse Reference, the Irish rank first in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency at 43.3% and 23.2% respectively. That’s an adjusted net efficiency of +19.9%. For reference, that 2022 Maryland team had a net efficiency of +20.6% and last year’s Irish team, which also won it all, finished at +19.5%.

As for Albany, it's sitting at just +1.9%, barely scoring more goals than it allows. The Great Danes are simply outmatched against the Irish on all sides of the ball. Their offense ranks admirably at 22nd, but their defense is 48th in the nation. If Notre Dame is able to string consecutive possessions together thanks to its sixth-ranked faceoff unit, it’s going to be a long day for Albany.

Bet Notre Dame to cover the -9.5 at -110 on BetMGM.

Additionally, I’m betting Notre Dame’s star attackman Pat Kavanagh to go Over 1.5 Goals at -146 on FanDuel. The older Kavanagh brother on the roster tends to be more of a facilitator than a goal-scorer, but his points props of 4.5 and 5.5 don’t possess a lot of value at their current odds, even if I think he’s capable of putting up six points. If he does reach these points totals, it will likely be due to a combination of assists and goals, so the value is on his goals prop. Kavanagh has had a multi-goal performance in eight of 13 games this season and I expect him to do so again Sunday.

Picks: Notre Dame -9.5, Pat Kavanagh Over 1.5 Goals

No. 4 Syracuse vs. Towson

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

I already recommended betting Syracuse to make it to the Final Four and am now backing it on the spread against Towson. While the Tigers have been on a hot streak, I expect the Orange to win by four or more on Sunday night.

Much like Hopkins, Syracuse’s lackluster last game seems to be fresh enough in people’s minds that they’re forgetting how balanced this team was for most of the regular season. Towson is a strong team, but I don’t think it'll be able to overcome a potential possession disadvantage and stifle Syracuse's offense enough to cover.

The Orange rank first in offensive efficiency during competitive situations and are 15th in adjusted defensive efficiency. While the Tigers rank 10th in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency during competitive play, they’ve enjoyed a possession advantage in the majority of their games.

Syracuse also rides tremendously well and could gain even more possessions on failed Towson clears. Furthermore, Towson tends to struggle off-ball and the Orange are one of the best teams at creating space and quality chances around the crease.

Ultimately, the Orange matchup too well with Towson and I expect Syracuse to eventually build and maintain a lead on the back of its highly efficient offense and aggressive defense, which is led by goalie Will Mark.

Bet Syracuse -3.5 at -110 on Caesars.

Pick: Syracuse -3.5